What Would Have to Be True
The conditions an idea needs to succeed
- PhaseIdeate
- Group3 to 12 people
- Time30 minutes
- SettingRoom or remote
- ExecutivesYes
What it is
What Would Have to Be True takes an idea and lists the conditions that must hold for it to succeed, across people, data, process, policy and trust. Each condition becomes something to check before anyone builds.
When to use it
After a promising idea or headline, to turn belief into conditions that can be tested.
When to skip it
Before an idea has been shaped. Write Idea Cards first.
How to run it
- 5 minState the idea in one sentence.
- 15 minComplete “For this to work, it would have to be true that...” in each box.
- 10 minMark the conditions the group believes least. Those go to the Assumption Map.
About 30 minutes of method time. Add ten to fifteen minutes to open and close the session.
What to watch for
Conditions that are wishes (“people will love it”). Skipping data and people conditions, which are the usual cause of failure.
The AI lens
Make sure there is a condition on data being available and usable, on people checking the output, and on someone being accountable.
What you leave with
A list of conditions for the idea, with the least believed marked.
An example
For an AI tool that drafts underwriting notes: the data must be accessible and clean enough, underwriters must check the notes, and someone must be accountable for errors. Each condition is a question for a test.
How it compares
What Would Have to Be True lists conditions. An Assumption Map then ranks them by risk and evidence.
Related methods
Questions
What is What Would Have to Be True?
What Would Have to Be True takes an idea and lists the conditions that must hold for it to succeed, across people, data, process, policy and trust. Each condition becomes something to check before anyone builds.
When should I use What Would Have to Be True?
After a promising idea or headline, to turn belief into conditions that can be tested.
How long does What Would Have to Be True take and how many people do I need?
What Would Have to Be True takes about 30 minutes and suits 3 to 12 people, plus a facilitator. Add ten to fifteen minutes to open and close the session.
How is What Would Have to Be True different from other methods?
What Would Have to Be True lists conditions. An Assumption Map then ranks them by risk and evidence.
Can I run What Would Have to Be True remotely or with executives?
Yes. What Would Have to Be True works in the room or remotely. Remotely, put the canvas on a shared board in advance and write silently in the board, not in chat. Executives: Yes, works with executives present.